The Joe Quarterback Podcast

Just a regular guy talking football with people who love football

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  • The Road to Super Bowl LX – Conference Championships

    We are coming down to it now! One more game stands between us and knowing who will be vying for the title of Super Bowl Champion on February 8. After Buffalo’s heartbreaking, overtime loss to Denver last week, my prediction for the big game is shot for the year. So, we forge ahead and look at this week’s matchups!

    New England Patriots (2) vs. Denver Broncos (1) – The Divisional Round was not just heartbreaking for Buffalo, it was heartbreaking for Denver as well. After gutting it out on a fractured ankle in overtime, Bo Nix is done for the year, and Jarrett Stidham steps in to fill the gap. Sean Payton has gone on the record to say “Stiddy” is ready. He may be ready, but after being drafted by New England, then following Josh McDaniels to the Raiders and the Broncos, it seems to me that the Patriots have an inside track on what to expect from the Auburn University product; not to mention Carlton Davis would have had a chance to watch Stidham during their days together on the Plains of south Alabama. Also, a young New England offensive unit led by MVP candidate Drake Maye looks poised to take the next step. After an incredible run, it seems unlikely that it’s going to be Denver’s year. Patriots 28, Broncos 18.

    Los Angeles Rams (5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1) – I’m not sure I could have been more “off” about the NFC Division Round match up of San Francisco versus Seattle. Certainly, there were extenuating factors, chiefly that Kittle was out with a torn Achilles, but San Francisco certainly had enough weapons including 2026 MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey. With a strong defensive unit including a secondary that looks like echoes of the early 2010s “Legion of Boom” and Sam Darnold playing like a man on a mission to prove he was worth the #3 overall pick in 2018, the Seahawks look like the real deal. The Rams are also looking strong on both sides of the ball led by MVP candidate Matthew Stafford and that formidable 13 personnel attack. This will be the deciding game in a “best of 3” series this year with an average margin of victory of 1.5 points from the previous 2 contests. In spite of my earlier prediction on who would represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, this victory goes to the home team.  Seahawks 29, Rams 28.

  • The Road to Super Bowl LX – Divisional Round

    Let’s be real for a minute – Wild Card weekend was…well, wild. With an average margin of victory of only 8.5 points (which is only as high as it is because Houston’s defense turned into a touchdown juggernaut), there were a lot of close games. A couple of them close enough that I’m getting nervous about my Super Bowl prediction. But we press ahead with our peek at the upcoming weekend’s divisional matchups!

    Buffalo Bills (6) vs. Denver Broncos (1) – Denver makes its debut in this year’s playoffs taking on the team that dropped them in the first round last year. Thanks to a ridiculous tie breaker with New England (win percentage in common games), Denver got an extra week of rest while Josh Allen and the Bills absolutely slugged it out with third-seeded Jacksonville. Buffalo’s wide receiver room is running on fumes with the loss of Gabe Davis to a torn ACL. But even with the wizard, Sean Payton, calling the shots, the Broncos feel a bit like a team that’s missing one or two key pieces to be a major threat against the #1 overall pass defense of 2025. It will be a close one. Buffalo 22, Denver 19.

    Houston Texans (5) vs. New England Patriots (2) – This one feels a little bit like the immovable object (Houston’s defense) meets the unstoppable force (Patriot’s offense). Honestly, you could probably swap those analogies and it would be just as accurate. This matchup features what are likely the two most complete teams in the divisional round. Two strong defenses take on two high speed offenses on short weeks. And Foxborough can be a formidable place to play. New England 17, Houston 13.

    San Francisco 49ers (6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1) – Another game that falls into the category of “don’t we get to see these guys play each other enough?” The 9ers and the ‘Hawks split their regular season contests including the week 18 match up that determined the #1 overall seed. Those games were won by an average of only 7 points, and San Francisco has already beaten Seattle on their home turf. However, Seattle’s extra week of rest should prove beneficial after the heavyweight bout San Francisco just had with Philadelphia losing their All-Pro tight end in the process. Lightning isn’t going to strike twice in the Emerald City. Seahawks 17, 49ers 10.

    Los Angeles Rams (5) vs. Chicago Bears (2) – Hollywood comes to the Windy City. There’s a lot being made about Matthew Stafford’s record in cold weather games (1-9 when it’s below freezing). So, what do you do? Pound the rock. Rely on the one-two punch you’re getting from Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in 13 personnel against the 27th ranked run defense from the regular season. And when you do have to pass, Puka will be ready. Again, it’s going to be tight. Los Angeles 20, Chicago 17.

  • The Road to Super Bowl LX – Wild Card Round

    It’s time for the playoffs… (playoffs?)

    The entire season has led up to this. It’s win or go home football. Anything can – and probably will – happen. For the NFL playoffs, we’ll do round-by-round predictions. There’s a companion post for this one with my start of playoffs Super Bowl prediction. Check that out here.

    For now – the Wild Card Round!

    Rams (5) vs. Panthers (4) – Carolina had what many would call a surprise win over the Rams a few weeks ago. Stafford turned the ball over 3 times in that game (sounds an awful lot like another recent performance versus an NFC South opponent that had me on the edge of my seat during fantasy championship weekend). Lightning isn’t going to strike twice. Rams 31, Panthers 24.

    Packers (7) vs. Bears (2) – Fun stat: the last team the Packers beat was the Bears; the last team the Bears beat was the Packers. As if we don’t get to see these two play each other enough, this rivalry now carries into the 2025 post-season. The Packers defense is likely to struggle with Micah Parson’s absence. Plus, Chicago saw Burden’s breakout late season and Odunze will be back. Bears 24, Packers 14.

    Chargers (7) vs. Patriots (2) – The big knock on the Patriots this year has been they haven’t played any tough competition. That said, their defense has kept them in the close games and Drake Maye is really starting to look like Tom Brady 2.0. With the Chargers pulling people out of the stands to play offensive line, this one feels the closest you can get to a sure thing. Patriots 30, Chargers 20.

    Bills (6) vs. Jaguars (3) – Oof. This one’s tough; and it makes me nervous for my Super Bowl prediction. The Bills really seemed to struggle in the back half of the season while the Jags were on the rise. Liam Coen seems to have found the code that finally unlocked T-Law, Etienne has earned his next contract (wherever it might be), and Meyers and Washington have really opened up the receiving game. However…I think Josh Allen is going to be a man on a mission in this year’s playoffs. His two kryptonites (Mahomes and Lamar) are not standing in his path. Watch out. Bills 28, Jaguars 25.

    49ers (6) vs. Eagles (3) – The 3v6 matchups feel like the hardest ones to pick this year. The 49ers enter the playoffs having won 6 of their last seven (lost that 7th one to the #1 Seahawks) while the Eagles went 3-4 in that stretch. However, the 9ers are dealing with some key injuries (Trent Williams, Ricky Pearsall, Rendardo Green). Plus it’s hard to pick against the defending champs with Saquon still in the backfield. Another close one. Eagles 24, 49ers 21.

    Texans (5) vs. Steelers (4) – The Steelers are in…barely. Their playoff spot came down to a rookie kicker going wide right on a 44-yard field goal. That Texans defense looks borderline unstoppable on so many fronts. It’s hard to envision a world where Pittsburgh finds a way to make this happen. Texans 28, Steelers 24.

  • Super Bowl LX Prediction

    Buffalo Bills 33, Los Angeles Rams 28

  • Loser’s Out

    If you’re keeping up, by now you are aware that I’m a fan of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m always happy when the Bucs win a game. And, yet, I find myself…unsettled by this past weekend’s “victory.”

    Tampa Bay’s win over the Carolina Panthers in the final regular season game ensured that the playoff representative from the NFC South would enter the postseason with a losing record at 8-9. This is not the first time this happened (actually the Bucs did it in 2022 as well).

    Playoff football should be about the best of the best, locking up in lose-and-go-home competition. If you enter the contest already a loser? Not how I would describe the best of the best.

    My proposed solution is probably not a popular one; certainly not among Panthers fans. I think if your division can’t produce a team with a winning record, one of two things should happen:

    1. Your divisional representative forfeits home field advantage throughout their time in the playoffs (assuming they make it out of the first round) and the highest ranked wild card team takes that honor.

    -OR-

    1. If you can’t produce a winner, then you shouldn’t be in the playoffs. Create an extra wild card spot and give it to a team who was able to go .500 or better. I actually lean more towards this one.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that the fourth seeded Steelers are that much more competitive in their conference. The North has been the AFC doppelganger of the NFC South. However, their dumpster fire got extinguished long enough for a “winning” team to limp into the postseason. And I’m not saying to completely discard the division winner model and go to a straight overall record-based approach. What I am saying is let’s make playoff football about winning teams.

    (SIDE NOTE: Based on the last 7 weeks of play, I’m not even sure the best team in the NFC South is the one going to the playoffs this year. The Saints looked good in the home stretch…)

    Any any rate, happy playoffs to all you fans out there!

  • Happy New Year!

  • My Fantasy Football Season Recap

    Fantasy football…equal parts strategy, research, gut instinct, and dumb luck. I love it; and, I hate it. This year, I might have gone overboard. As in everyone rolls their eyes at you overboard. As in Michael Buble, eight leagues overboard (still probably my favorite interview ever on the Rich Eisen show). There were exciting weeks, there were frustrating weeks. But through it all, it connected me to the game in a fun way, and created some space for some good-natured trash talking along the way.

    So, here we are, the good, the bad, the ugly in reverse order…

    The Ugly

    • The Family League (Yahoo!) – From the jump, this was a rough one this year. It was the third year of a league I had made the playoffs in the first two years. A first round pick on Justin Jefferson was, in hindsight, a bust. I finished the year 4-12 in dead last place. You win some, you lose some…
    • The Work League (Sleeper, Commissioner) – This was a crazy league this year (more details over here). We ran two conferences and an offline championship. I wrapped the season in 6th place at 6-8, but ultimately finished last place in the consolation bracket. This was another league where J-Jettas was a late first round pick. Detecting a theme much? At least getting Puka on the turn in round 2 kept me from completely imploding.
    • The Megalabowl presented by the Fantasy Footballers (Sleeper) – This was my first exposure to median scoring (an interesting twist) and being in a 12-team league (where all teams are playing in the same pool). I’d do it again, but a 12-22 finish was nothing to write home about. My Burrow/Higgins stack got blown up early on, Bucky got injured then was never the same, and Jameson Williams just never consistently lived up to the hype.

    The Bad

    • The Gridiron Gauntlet 1 (ESPN) – My first entry to ESPN’s new national competition. Similar to the family league, I just had a hard time stringing together wins in this one. BTJ wasn’t living up to the 2024 campaign, Chase Brown struggled during Burrow’s absence, and CeeDee and Garrett Wilson both spent some time on IR. I made a little run at the end of the season to finish 7-6, but just missed the playoffs. Ended up in 6th place through the consolation bracket. 

    The Good

    • Keepin’ It Clean Dynasty League (Sleeper, Commissioner) – In the first year of this dynasty league, I got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Year 2 saw me finish as the #1 overall seed with a 10-4 record and a first round bye. This one was wrapped by the time Sunday Night Football was done, fueled by a dominant performance by Derrick Henry (his name is going to come up again…). I’m actually handing over the reins of this league and exiting to pursue a new format (ever heard of a contract league?), so going out on top was nice. And it was a good group of dudes. Championship #1
    • The Gridiron Gauntlet 2 (ESPN) – My second entry into ESPN’s Royal Rumble of fantasy football started with the #1 overall pick in the draft. My first five picks were Bijan, Josh Allen, King Henry, M1K3, and Kittle. In a later round, I picked up Tucker Kraft who helped fill some gaps while Kittle was out until his season-ending injury. I squeaked into the playoffs as the 4th seed due to the up-and-down years Henry and Allen had. ESPN does two week rounds for the playoffs and my guys hit some hot streaks to finish the year. Championship #2.
    • The Gridiron Gauntlet 3 (ESPN) – Yes, I had three, because ESPN said I could. And, I managed to pull the ping pong ball for the #1 overall pick again. This time, I went Bijan, King Henry, Josh Allen, Kittle, and Evans (because I had to switch it up a little bit). I also drafted Jake Ferguson in a later which, again, helped keep me afloat until Kittle came back. I rolled through this league finishing 11-2, the #1 overall seed, and I amassed over 316 points in the championship round. Championship #3. (As a side note, this team was ranked 3,726th in the national competition, scoring a total of 615.38 points. At the time of this post, ESPN had not released the total number of entries, but it was at least 34,986 based on the final ranking of my second entry. For comparison, the #1 overall team in the contest scored 730.6 points.)
    • The Forge Keeper League (Sleeper, Commissioner) – If my wife came to me and said “Honey, it’s too much. You can play in one fantasy football league” – this is the one I would pick. It’s a bunch of guys I go to church with, we have a sweet traveling trophy, and it’s one more way to connect with some encouraging brothers. This one was an uphill battle the entire playoffs. Finishing the regular season at 8-6 and entering the playoffs as the fourth seed, I won the first round by a little over a point. I went into Monday Football in good shape on the round 2 projection, and then George Kittle started going off on the Colts before leaving with an injury (I’m fairly convinced that I lose that round if Kittle doesn’t go out of the game). In the finals, my opponent had tough performances from James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs while my team was bolstered by Rhamondre Stevenson in my FLEX, and rookie RB Omarion Hampton outperforming his projection. In the end it came down to MNF: my QB, Matthew Stafford, vs. his TE, Colby Parkinson, and less than a 10-point lead. Stafford kept me on my toes the entire game (3 INTs, some borderline fumbles, TD called back), but it locked in after the late touchdown. Championship #4.

    I entered the season with four fantasy championships under my belt. So, to match my lifetime fantasy championship record in a single season? I’d say it was a good year. Next year, I will cut back (even I’m willing to admit that 8 was too many). And, if things go well with the podcast…maybe a listener league? We’ll see…

  • First Ballot or Bust

    As you might guess, I listen to a few football-related podcasts. And, as you might guess, sometimes I agree with the hosts’ takes, and sometimes I disagree. This past week, I heard a take I so wholeheartedly disagreed with that I started yelling at the car stereo.

    When talking about Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receiver Mike Evans, the host said (paraphrasing), “He’s a second ballot hall of famer.” Wait…what?

    Full transparency (in case you haven’t ready my About page): I am a Buccaneers fan. Through and through. Every year in the office Pigskin Pick ‘em, I never pick against the Bucs. No matter who they’re playing. No matter who is injured. No matter what, I always pick Tampa Bay to win. That being said, I don’t believe my position on this is overly rose-colored by my allegiance to the Krewe.

    Granted, it is difficult for a wide receiver to get in, first ballot. There have only ever been seven. Whatever the reasons for that, the HOF voters have shied away from giving this distinction to the position. However, Evans’ amazing career in Tampa Bay warrants the honor of being a first ballot hall of famer. 

    Let’s start with some basic stats for Evans and the last three WRs to go in on the first ballot…

    PlayerCareer Rec.Career YdsCareer TDsSuper Bowls
    Mike Evans86112,9871071
    Randy Moss98215,2921560
    Calvin Johnson73111,619830
    Jerry Rice1,54922,8951973

    Evans has already surpassed first ballot HOFer, Megatron, in these key career stats. Had it not been for the injuries plaguing his last two campaigns, he could be challenging Moss in receptions and yards categories. And, he has a Super Bowl victory on his resume.

    Not enough? How about this? It has been widely discussed that Evans finished the 2024 season by tying Jerry Rice’s record for 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. A feat in and of itself. However, Evans’ streak started his rookie year. This means he holds the record for the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start a career. He almost doubled up the previous record of six held by…wait for it…first ballot hall of famer, Randy Moss.

    So, second ballot hall of famer? I don’t think so. Whenever M1K3 decides its time to hang up the cleats, mark it on your calendar – 5 years to Canton.

  • College Football Playoff Predictions

    The 2025 College Football Playoffs (CFP) are kicking off right about now. Here are Joe Quarterback’s (not so) “expert” picks going into the second year of the expanded 12-team field by round:

    Round 1 (games played in home stadiums of higher ranked seeds)

    • #12 James Madison vs. #5 Oregon – This is feeling like a very lopsided matchup. Ducks in Eugene? Feels like a no-brainer. Winner: Oregon (by 3 scores)
    • #9 Alabama vs. #8 Oklahoma – I saw a stat earlier that no team has beaten Bama twice in a single season since 1893. The streak continues. Winner: Alabama (by 1 score – because that’s how the Tide have rolled this season)
    • #11 Tulane vs. #6 Ole Miss – The Rebels had to deal with all of the Lane Kiffin departure drama at the end of the season, but they get it done against the Green Wave. Winner: Ole Miss (by 2 scores)
    • #10 Miami vs. #7 Texas A&M – I live in Florida, hurricanes don’t scare me. Especially when they’re going into Kyle Field, home of the collegiate 12th man. Winner: Texas A&M (by 1 score)

    CFP Quarterfinals

    • Capital One Orange Bowl: #5 Oregon vs. #4 Texas Tech – The Red Raiders are here for a reason. But the Ducks have been here before. This one should be close. Winner: Oregon (by 1 score)
    • Rose Bowl Game: #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana – The Hoosiers looked like a juggernaut at season’s end, led by the now-Heisman winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza (one of his many awards for this season). Lots of crimson on the field in this game, and it should be close. Winner: Indiana (by 1 score)
    • Allstate Sugar Bowl: #6 Ole Miss vs. #3 Georgia – The Kiffin hangover finally takes effect and the Bulldogs move on. Winner: Georgia (by 2 scores)
    • Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: #7 Texas A&M vs. #2 Ohio State – The Aggies have had an impressive run this year. But the Buckeyes will be too much for them. Winner: Ohio State (by 2 scores)

    CFP Semifinals

    • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: #5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana – The Hoosiers are on a roll and take down the Ducks for a second time this season. Winner: Indiana (by 1 score)
    • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: #3 Georgia vs. #2 Ohio State – I’m an SEC guy. So, it pains me to say it – there won’t be an SEC team in the championship. Winner: Ohio State (by 2 scores)

    CFP National Championship at Hardrock Stadium: #2 Ohio State vs. #1 Indiana – Watching these two in the Big 10 Championship game makes this rematch feel almost inevitable. Their clash in Indy a few weeks ago showed 2 heavyweights, slugging it out until the very end. I think Ohio State learned a thing or two; and, they’re going to exploit it. It will be higher scoring than their last meeting, but still close. Winner: Ohio State (by 1 score)

    Let me know what you think? Where am I wrong? Drop a comment below.

  • In with the…old?

    It’s been an interesting season for the Indianapolis Colts in many ways. The explosion of Jonathan Taylor. The acquisition of Sauce Gardner. And the quarterbacks. Oh, it’s been an interesting year for quarterbacks in Indy. Three different field generals stepped onto the gridiron for Colts at some point during the first 14 weeks…

    • Anthony Richardson, the lackluster (to say the least) 4th overall pick of the 2023 draft has thrown 1-9-0 (completions-yards-touchdowns) and has been recovering from a fractured orbital bone sustained during warm-ups before their game against the Cardinals.
    • Riley Leonard, a more modest 6th-rounder in 2025 has gone 18-145-0 and is fighting a strained PCL.
    • And, Daniel Jones, their blockbuster acquisition of this past off-season went 261-3101-19 before a devastating torn Achilles tendon ended his current campaign and calls his availability for next season into question.

    With the trade deadline well in the rearview mirror at this point, what was left for the Colts to do? Scour the waiver wire? Bring on a UFL quarterback? No…no, no. They found a Colts alumnus who decided he had something left in the tank.

    Philip Rivers forfeited his HOF semifinalist status to come back to the Colts and help them close out their season. At 44, he’s now the oldest active player in the league (unseating 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers from that throne), and is a grandfather. And how did he fare? Not…bad. Certainly capable for someone who had less than a week to practice with the team. He went 18-118-1 with an interception and a 73.1 passer rating. For you fantasy nerds, he fell between QB27-29 for week 15 (ymmv based on league scoring systems). He looked like someone who’d only been with the team for a few days.

    I went back and watched his 27 passing attempts on the all-22 video footage (NFL+ Premium really is a fun toy). Of 27 passes, there are only three I saw and thought, “eh, there was a better option”:

    • Michael Pittman was wide open on a crossing route moving right to left (interesting enough, the TD to Joshua Downs later was a similar route).
    • There was one play where Downs was wide open in the left flat.
    • On the interception, Alec Pierce was open on a go route down the right sideline.

    It seems the field vision, the instinct is still there. This felt like someone who is still developing rapport with his receivers. So, the question will be what does his second week look like after a full week of practice. The 49ers come to town for prime time on Monday night. Quarterbacks have been scoring 0.2 points over their projections against the San Francisco defense this season. So, not an overly favorable matchup. (Father) Time will tell…